(originally posted Saturday, January 17, 2004, 11:26)
Well it feels like it’s been forever since checking in but I see by the last date it’s just
over a month. Not so long considering the major events that have gone on. I lost my
focus completely over that time. We’ve had a mad cow wipe the floor with any longs
in that market, Christmas, my 55th birthday and then the loss my beautiful cousin
from a brain tumour.
I know this happens each and every day but when it touches you
with the loss of someone young, fondly remembered and so special, the internal
heart-felt pain is difficult to deal with. Her own family of three children now alone with
their father in Texas is having to come to grips with the loss of their young mother.
The letter I wrote my Aunt upon learning of Pat’s death was one of the most difficult
things I’ve ever done. It was rewarding to see her peers from College enjoy a
celebration of her life. Having been an honours graduate, how rewarding for my Aunt
to be invited to a different city for a commemorative service. Pretty cool.
But honestly, doesn’t it seem a cruel turn to ever be preceded by your own son or
daughter. Like I wrote, it goes on every day. But we all need to take a reflective pause,
then tell our loved ones how much we care. The old adage “it’s never too late” isn’t
true.
So, on a scale of 1 to 10, my focus on the markets has been a 3. Despite that I’ve
found the coffee market interesting and fun. I was short corn when the mad cow went
on the rampage in the barnyard. I was short on technical chart resistance so to wake
up and have a near limit move with me, I of course grabbed it. Since then it’s gone
straight up. As usual…
I’ll never forget walking into my broker’s office at 05:00 one morning. I used to drive
there before going to work and trade currencies for an hour or so. This particular day
I was up a full cent in my short Swiss Franc position when the day session opened.
That’s $1250.
Howard told me to grab it. In retrospect I should have seen the overnight move and
gap opening as the gift it was. Of course greed raised it’s ugly head. For the next
hour I fought with myself over whether or not the move would continue. You know
the rest of the story. It tested the lows a couple of times, found the buying support
and took off to close the gap created on the opening day session.
Then the internal fight was, do I cover now or will it head back down. God, I’m glad I don’t do that
anymore. That’s the value of experience. If you’ve got the discipline to listen to
yourself. Well, or course the value of that move ran out pretty quick. The day turned
out to be an exhaustion spike so I think by leaving the screen, not staying focused
and not grabbing the gift, the entire move eroded.
It’s too long ago to remember how much I lost. It gave my broker a chance to say
‘I told you so’ which he was fond of saying. That’s why I moved to electronic trading.
Even after a 19 year relationship with my broker, I just couldn’t deal with his negative expectations.
But imagine how you would feel if EVERY account you ever opened went broke! .Usually sooner
than later. The expensive cutting truth about what leverage can do to your equity balance in
a big hurry. What an interesting game.
So now the time is here to re-capture my focus. I feel we’re on the edge of some big
moves in a couple of areas. The small profits I took out of sugar pale in comparison
to the melt down I witnessed in my end-of-day quick glances at the charts. Lack of
focus causes missing big moves.
I have participated in the coffee swings nicely. Ironic to find comfort in one of the more
difficult markets to trade. Odd too watching the grain market with more volatility than
coffee and cocoa. Your assignment, should you choose to accept it, is to find those areas
of opportunity you’re you’re comfortable with No matter which market. It doesn’t matter.
Then trade that puppy for all it’s worth. FOCUS!
Seeing the Euro chart topping out at major resistance last week and the exhaustion
spike created by the last downdraft of the US dollar gave me a nice little three day
move selling Euros and buying the Uncle Sam. Felt good. I took it off the the long
weekend of Martin Luther King Day on Monday. I don’t trust currencies to behave well
when I’m not looking.