(Originally Posted Tuesday March 30, 2004) Going to hold onto the cotton short overnight even though it’s a touch offside from my short at 64.50. I’m just lovin’ the double top today and also on the 60 minute as it has set up beautifully. If the floor is not covering now into the close with planting intentions due tomorrow, it’s a keeper. If the planting intentions report is bearish then we’ll see a break of that very strong 64 level perhaps. I want to be there for that. Of course if the report is bullish I’ll have to bail in the first 15 minutes in the morning…always dangerous to do in New York. Didn’t take the wheat long today pending the report. I have a gut feeling I should have gotten in!
There you have it. With the May cocoa closing at 1498 (settlement might be different) and my original stop having been at 1495, the trading rule I’ve had the most difficult time accepting came into play. When you make the committment and take a position, it’s really tough to accept being wrong. But this is a game of being wrong more than right. Embracing that is a tough lesson to learn.
I’ve been doing my level best to accept the premise that when the market is stalled it’s the same as going against me. My timing is wrong so take the position off. It’s hard to swallow because ego gets in the way. I mean, hell, all that research and study of the chart…that ‘feeling’ for the ebb and flow from support to resistance…out the window on either no follow-through or movement against. So when it stalls and doesn’t move the way we saw it should, why not get out to try again later. Treating a stall as poor timing for entry is proving to be profitable for me and teaching me to admit being wrong early, therefore saving both capital and energy for another move. It’s rewarding emotionally as well.
Just covered the CC at 1487. It’s stalling and knowing cocoa it’s just as likely to leap through resistance and tag me. Getting long the KC at 72.70 as it looks like it’s found it’s support and will rally off this level towards closing the gap of last week.
I see in both the overnight action and this morning that the Bonds are rallying slightly just as I expected. I honestly believe we’ve seen the highs and we’ll thrash around up here for months perhaps. It will be a scalpers market with a half point here, and a point there. We’ll be building a downside bias until after the Presidential election in November. Of course when interest rates begin to rise we need to be short and stay short.
It could be a great run given my memory of the early 80’s when here we went from 8,9 and 10% to a high of 22% in a matter of two years. This could be the campaign of my lifetime seeing as I’ve missed so many other big ones, most recently the beans to date. Copper too for that matter, but I rarely ever trade copper anyway. With the beans I just wasn’t paying attention.
On the matter of paying attention, after the look of yesterdays buying off support in the Wheat, it’s looking like the time to get long, perhaps for a long hall. That was a very bullish day, at least in the front month. Maybe I’ll pick up something just over yesterday’s high. Still short the cocoa from 1490, but it doesn’t look like for much longer. It doesn’t seem to want to die and is trading at 1485 right now.