(Originally Posted Tuesday, March 23, 2004) The overnight session is running the Bonds up at 116 even and the Beans are up 8 and a half. Just proves a bull market knows no resistance and a bear market knows no support. Wheat is shaping up again and we should be able to see some intra-day technicals show up. I’ve decided after seeing my coffee equity drop the last two days that I’ll have to leave tomorrow if this support fails. I don’t want the slide in equity to turn into a real loss. There’s a good chance it’ll dive.
I like the way the chart is set up but if no buying materializes it could get ugly. I left a lot of money on the table but I don’t want to tolerate digging into my actual pocket to support the position. That could get messy in a hurry.
A fun if not sweaty day. Coffee played back and forth but really looks ‘normal’ as it bounces between the upper reaches and back down into its support zones. I didn’t like the weak close so tomorrow might be the morning to take the trade off the table. If they can’t rally it with some volume I’ll have to wait for support to buy from. I won’t short it but just stand aside while it drifts. It won’t be long. It’s going to break out either way and the chart is actually one of the best looking right now. Funny…for coffee, it’s the easiest to read for me at least. Could change in a heart beat though.
The cotton trade is pounding equity into my account. Which is a good thing because I saw the opportunity to short the beans and immediately gave it up with a loss. My timing was totally off . It just reversed off yesterday’s lows. Took it for another short later in the morning at 1051. It rallied off support so I took it off at 1048 for a triple. Of course a short trade here is top picking. The top which will occur sometime.
When the profit taking materializes it’s going to be a bloodbath so that’s my plan. You can’t hang around short in a bull market so when the rally started back up I just covered. I mean, after all, the Bonds were against me all morning. I’ve kept the short and the failure at today’s highs makes me feel positive for the ‘morrow.
Sure got sweaty though as every little stall was then met with new buying over about a 5 to 8 minute time frame. Then it would peter out again. Still, the drift up is unpleasant. Sugar and corn continue to amaze me. Hard to trade with no pullback. Hard to accept if I’d gotten long through proper analysis way back when I should have, they wouldn’t be hard to trade at all, would they. Charts like those keep the dream alive.